Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Noah Fant
Noah Fant

Player breakdown

Noah Fant

Iowa · 2019 Draft Class

6-4249 lbs1st round, 20th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~28
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

48%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019DEN1611664056214.1335.1
2020DEN1514936267310.9344.9
2021DEN161690686709.9441.9
2022SEA171663504869.7428.6
2023SEA1717433241412.9024.4
2024SEA149644850010.4135.7
2025CIN15741342888.5319.2
Career110904603343,59310.81832.7
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016IowaBig Ten697007.811.7
2017IowaBig Ten1125435717.439.5
2018IowaBig Ten1238490612.940.8
Career29729951313.834.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

48%

ML model output

Context Prob

48%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

127" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.532
Reception rate trend+0.255
-56.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.174

Top Negative Factors

Speed × production: 59.5 — average combined athletic output-0.369
11.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.343
Class YPR rank: top 50% — average per-target efficiency-0.301

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)