Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Noah Gray
Noah Gray

Player breakdown

Noah Gray

Duke · 2021 Draft Class

6-3240 lbs5th round, 162nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

16%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021KAN161107365.112.3
2022KAN178342829910.7117.6
2023KAN1710412830510.9217.9
2024KAN1710494043710.9525.7
2025KAN16637211788.5011.1
Career83351711241,25510.1915.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017DukeACC353707.412.3
2018DukeACC81922801228.5
2019DukeACC124937507.731.2
2020DukeACC82321709.427.1
Career319685708.927.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

16%

ML model output

Context Prob

16%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.588
Reception rate trend+0.251
Speed × production: 42.0 — average combined athletic output+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+60) — improving trajectory-0.666
450 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.506
1.56 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.445

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)