Player breakdown
Noah Gray
Duke · 2021 Draft Class
6-3240 lbs5th round, 162nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | KAN | 16 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 | 2.3 |
| 2022 | KAN | 17 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 299 | 10.7 | 1 | 17.6 |
| 2023 | KAN | 17 | 10 | 41 | 28 | 305 | 10.9 | 2 | 17.9 |
| 2024 | KAN | 17 | 10 | 49 | 40 | 437 | 10.9 | 5 | 25.7 |
| 2025 | KAN | 16 | 6 | 37 | 21 | 178 | 8.5 | 0 | 11.1 |
| Career | 83 | 35 | 171 | 124 | 1,255 | 10.1 | 9 | 15.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Duke | ACC | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 7.4 | 12.3 |
| 2018 | Duke | ACC | 8 | 19 | 228 | 0 | 12 | 28.5 |
| 2019 | Duke | ACC | 12 | 49 | 375 | 0 | 7.7 | 31.2 |
| 2020 | Duke | ACC | 8 | 23 | 217 | 0 | 9.4 | 27.1 |
| Career | 31 | 96 | 857 | 0 | 8.9 | 27.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
16%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.588
Reception rate trend+0.251
Speed × production: 42.0 — average combined athletic output+0.188
Top Negative Factors
Positive production trend (+60) — improving trajectory-0.666
450 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.506
1.56 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.445