Predicting the Pros
Predictions/O.J. Howard
O.J. Howard

Player breakdown

O.J. Howard

Alabama · 2017 Draft Class

6-6251 lbs1st round, 19th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

36%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2017TAM1414392643216.6630.9
2018TAM108483456516.6556.5
2019TAM1414533445913.5132.8
2020TAM41191114613.3236.5
2021TAM17921141359.617.9
2022HOU1310231014514.5211.2
Career72562031291,88214.61726.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013AlabamaSEC214269219.2134.5
2014AlabamaSEC815246016.430.8
2015AlabamaSEC1030335011.233.5
2016AlabamaSEC1337446212.134.3
Career33961,296413.539.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

36%

ML model output

Context Prob

36%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

121" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.643
134.5 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.369
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.264

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+59) — improving trajectory-0.721
1.78 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.416
Class YPR rank: top 42% — average per-target efficiency-0.286

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)