Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Orson Charles
Orson Charles

Player breakdown

Orson Charles

Georgia · 2012 Draft Class

6-2251 lbs4th round, 116th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

29%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2012CIN16610810112.606.3
2013CIN130218800.6
2017KAN50225326.5010.6
2018CLE13253237.701.8
Career478191418513.203.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009GeorgiaSEC323374316.3124.7
2010GeorgiaSEC224403216.8201.5
2011GeorgiaSEC0445725130
Career5911,3491014.8269.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

29%

ML model output

Context Prob

29%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

762 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.587
Class YPR rank: top 27% — strong per-target efficiency+0.368
124.7 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.348

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+99) — improving trajectory-0.619
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.391
Speed × production: 57.4 — average combined athletic output-0.365

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)