Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth

Player breakdown

Pat Freiermuth

Penn St. · 2021 Draft Class

6-5251 lbs2nd round, 55th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
HighAll-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021PIT16979604978.3731.1
2022PIT168986373211.6245.8
2023PIT12947323089.6225.7
2024PIT1711786565310738.4
2025PIT178544148611.9428.6
Career78453562612,67610.32234.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2018Penn StateBig Ten1122323014.729.4
2019IndianaBig Ten111701717
2019Penn StateBig Ten1240451011.337.6
2020Penn StateBig Ten423310013.577.5
Career28861,101012.839.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

28%

ML model output

Context Prob

28%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.272
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.252
Efficiency consistency: 1.15 — highly consistent across seasons+0.219

Top Negative Factors

Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.408
1.80 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.371
Class YPR rank: top 50% — average per-target efficiency-0.342

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)