Player breakdown
Patrick Estes
Virginia · 2005 Draft Class
7th round, 248th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~43
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
10%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Virginia | ACC | 0 | 6 | 74 | 0 | 12.3 | 0 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
10%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
YPG ranked at 0th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.203
Flat production across college career+0.172
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.156
Top Negative Factors
74.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.428
88 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.427
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.401