Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Payne Durham
Payne Durham

Player breakdown

Payne Durham

Purdue · 2023 Draft Class

6-6253 lbs5th round, 171st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023TAM132755811.604.5
2024TAM166141111510.527.2
2025TAM171041111100.6
Career4618251718410.824.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019PurdueBig Ten798209.111.7
2020PurdueBig Ten615160010.726.7
2021PurdueBig Ten94038209.642.4
2022PurdueBig Ten124645009.837.5
Career341101,07409.831.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

15%

ML model output

Context Prob

15%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

117" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.591
Reception rate trend+0.282
Speed × production: 40.5 — average combined athletic output+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+122 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.588
1.78 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.427
11.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.321

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)