Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Randall Telfer
Randall Telfer

Player breakdown

Randall Telfer

USC · 2015 Draft Class

6-4250 lbs6th round, 198th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

35%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2016CLE145724200.3
2017CLE161443361202.3
Career3019115408.001.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011USCBig Ten026273510.50
2012USCBig Ten41210048.325
2013USCBig Ten1567113.467
2014USCPac-1281715509.119.4
Career1360595109.945.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

35%

ML model output

Context Prob

35%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

273.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.284
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.241
-44.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.178

Top Negative Factors

364 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.381
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.374
1.09 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.366

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)