Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Richard Rodgers
Richard Rodgers

Player breakdown

Richard Rodgers

California · 2014 Draft Class

6-4257 lbs3rd round, 98th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~34
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

72%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014GNB165302022511.3214.1
2015GNB161285585108.8831.9
2016GNB16647302719216.9
2017GNB151191216013.3110.7
2018PHI70117701
2020PHI144312434514.4224.6
2021PHI3022115.503.7
2022LAC101414400.4
Career97292191481,53310.41515.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2012CaliforniaACC120288114.4288
2013CaliforniaACC139608115.6608
Career259896215.2448.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

72%

ML model output

Context Prob

72%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

116" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.612
729 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.431
Class YPR rank: top 20% — elite per-target efficiency+0.345

Top Negative Factors

Speed × production: 55.6 — average combined athletic output-0.371
Best season: 608.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.290
608.0 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate-0.255

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)