Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski

Player breakdown

Rob Gronkowski

Arizona · 2010 Draft Class

6-6264 lbs2nd round, 42nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~37
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

93%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2010NWE16115942546131034.1
2011NWE1616124901,32714.71782.9
2012NWE1111795579014.41171.8
2013NWE76663959215.2484.6
2014NWE1510131821,12413.71274.9
2015NWE1515120721,17616.31178.4
2016NWE86382554021.6367.5
2017NWE1414105691,08415.7877.4
2018NWE1311724768214.5352.5
2020TAM1616774562313.8738.9
2021TAM1212895580214.6666.8
Career1431289606219,28615.09264.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2007ArizonaBig 12528525618.8105
2008ArizonaBig 12743645101592.1
Career12711,1701616.597.5

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

93%

ML model output

Context Prob

93%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

774 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.587
Class YPR rank: top 6% — elite per-target efficiency+0.381
2.44 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.373

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+120 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.446
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.352
Speed × production: 71.0 — strong combined athletic output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)