Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta

Player breakdown

Sam LaPorta

Iowa · 2023 Draft Class

6-3245 lbs2nd round, 34th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
HighAll-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023DET17141208688910.31052.3
2024DET1616836072612.1745.4
2025DET99494048912.2354.3
Career42392521862,10411.32050.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2019IowaBig Ten5914401628.8
2020IowaBig Ten82727101033.9
2021IowaBig Ten1246573012.547.8
2022IowaBig Ten1152635012.257.7
Career361341,623012.145.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

50%

ML model output

Context Prob

50%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

846 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.614
123" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.588
2.59 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.373

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+163 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.455
28.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.328
Speed × production: 70.1 — strong combined athletic output-0.317

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)