Player breakdown
Shawn Nelson
Southern Miss · 2009 Draft Class
6-5240 lbs4th round, 121st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
MediumMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
51%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | BUF | 12 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 156 | 9.2 | 1 | 13 |
| 2010 | BUF | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 5 |
| Career | 17 | 13 | 33 | 20 | 181 | 9.1 | 1 | 10.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 3 | 29 | 419 | 3 | 14.4 | 139.7 |
| 2006 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 3 | 36 | 506 | 3 | 14.1 | 168.7 |
| 2007 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 4 | 30 | 433 | 4 | 14.4 | 108.2 |
| 2008 | Southern Mississippi | Sun Belt | 2 | 51 | 541 | 3 | 10.6 | 270.5 |
| Career | 12 | 146 | 1,899 | 13 | 13.0 | 158.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
51%
ML model output
Context Prob
51%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
115" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.649
139.7 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.287
Reception rate trend+0.253
Top Negative Factors
360 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.403
Speed × production: 62.2 — strong combined athletic output-0.390
Best season: 270.5 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.303