Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Stephen Sullivan
Stephen Sullivan

Player breakdown

Stephen Sullivan

LSU · 2020 Draft Class

6-5248 lbs7th round, 251st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
HighMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

61%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2021CAR30100000
2022CAR14062462303.3
2023CAR110241212510.4011.4
2024CAR10100000
Career290321417112.205.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2017LSUSEC69195021.732.5
2018LSUSEC920287014.331.9
2019LSUSEC51112101124.2
Career2040603015.130.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

61%

ML model output

Context Prob

61%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

123" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.574
Class YPR rank: top 0% — elite per-target efficiency+0.345
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.254

Top Negative Factors

382 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.392
1.16 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.363
32.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.340

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)