Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ted Bolser
Ted Bolser

Player breakdown

Ted Bolser

Indiana · 2014 Draft Class

7th round, 217th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~35
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

32%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2010IndianaBig Ten427407515.1101.8
2011IndianaBig Ten114165111.8165
2012IndianaBig Ten341445310.9148.3
2013IndianaBig Ten43532069.180
Career121171,3371511.4111.4

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

32%

ML model output

Context Prob

32%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.252
Efficiency consistency: 1.32 — highly consistent across seasons+0.250
Speed × production: 0.0 — average combined athletic output+0.177

Top Negative Factors

Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.382
Class YPR rank: top 70% — average per-target efficiency-0.348
0.00 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.337

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)