Player breakdown
Theo Johnson
Penn St. · 2024 Draft Class
6-6264 lbs4th round, 107th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~25
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NYG | 12 | 11 | 43 | 29 | 331 | 11.4 | 1 | 27.6 |
| 2025 | NYG | 15 | 15 | 74 | 45 | 528 | 11.7 | 5 | 35.2 |
| Career | 27 | 26 | 117 | 74 | 859 | 11.6 | 6 | 31.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Penn State | Big Ten | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 2021 | Penn State | Big Ten | 9 | 19 | 213 | 0 | 11.2 | 23.7 |
| 2022 | Penn State | Big Ten | 7 | 19 | 300 | 2 | 15.8 | 42.9 |
| 2023 | Penn State | Big Ten | 11 | 31 | 322 | 6 | 10.4 | 29.3 |
| Career | 28 | 71 | 849 | 8 | 12.0 | 30.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
11%
ML model output
Context Prob
11%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Reception rate trend+0.268
-60.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.174
7.0 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.169
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+102 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.724
429 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.503
1.22 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.460