Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Thomas Duarte
Thomas Duarte

Player breakdown

Thomas Duarte

UCLA · 2016 Draft Class

6-2231 lbs7th round, 231st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~31
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

30%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013UCLABig Ten215206213.7103

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

30%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

118" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.579
Best season: 103.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling+0.242
103.0 volume-adjusted ypg — elite output relative to team pass rate+0.233

Top Negative Factors

274 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.415
0.89 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.355
Class YPR rank: top 43% — average per-target efficiency-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)