Player breakdown
T.J. Hockenson
Iowa · 2019 Draft Class
6-5251 lbs1st round, 8th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | DET | 12 | 7 | 59 | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 2 | 30.6 |
| 2020 | DET | 16 | 16 | 101 | 67 | 723 | 10.8 | 6 | 45.2 |
| 2021 | DET | 12 | 12 | 84 | 61 | 583 | 9.6 | 4 | 48.6 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 17 | 14 | 129 | 86 | 914 | 10.6 | 6 | 53.8 |
| 2022 | DET | 7 | 7 | 43 | 26 | 395 | 15.2 | 3 | 56.4 |
| 2022 | MIN | 10 | 7 | 86 | 60 | 519 | 8.7 | 3 | 51.9 |
| 2023 | MIN | 15 | 11 | 127 | 95 | 960 | 10.1 | 5 | 64 |
| 2024 | MIN | 10 | 9 | 62 | 41 | 455 | 11.1 | 0 | 45.5 |
| 2025 | MIN | 15 | 15 | 66 | 51 | 438 | 8.6 | 3 | 29.2 |
| Career | 114 | 98 | 757 | 519 | 5,354 | 10.3 | 32 | 47.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Iowa | Big Ten | 9 | 21 | 299 | 1 | 14.2 | 33.2 |
| 2018 | Iowa | Big Ten | 12 | 44 | 644 | 4 | 14.6 | 53.7 |
| Career | 21 | 65 | 943 | 5 | 14.5 | 44.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
78%
ML model output
Context Prob
78%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
858 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.635
123" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.614
2.57 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.379
Top Negative Factors
33.2 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.326
Speed × production: 66.2 — strong combined athletic output-0.319
Class YPR rank: top 43% — average per-target efficiency-0.293