Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tom Santi
Tom Santi

Player breakdown

Tom Santi

Virginia · 2008 Draft Class

6-3250 lbs6th round, 196th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~40
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2008IND621310646.4110.7
2009IND3211810713.4035.7
Career9424181719.5119.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004VirginiaACC013155011.90
2005VirginiaACC214230216.4115
2006VirginiaACC02925318.70
2007VirginiaACC233402312.2201
Career4891,040611.7260.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

121" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.652
155.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.283
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.01 — variable output+0.217

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+82) — improving trajectory-0.711
1.61 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.387
482 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.351

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)