Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tony Moeaki
Tony Moeaki

Player breakdown

Tony Moeaki

Iowa · 2010 Draft Class

6-3245 lbs3rd round, 93rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2010KAN1515734755611.8337.1
2012KAN1514563345313.7130.2
2014SEA6213813416.8122.3
2015ATL110535819.315.3
Career4731147911,20113.2625.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005IowaBig Ten081120140
2006IowaBig Ten310132313.244
2007IowaBig Ten114170312.1170
2008IowaBig Ten110101110.1101
2009IowaBig Ten330387412.9129
Career8729021112.5112.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

12%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

113" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.584
112.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.348
Efficiency consistency: 1.12 — highly consistent across seasons+0.222

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+68) — improving trajectory-0.725
1.58 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.398
516 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.338

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)