Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce

Player breakdown

Travis Kelce

Cincinnati · 2013 Draft Class

6-5255 lbs3rd round, 63rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

93%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014KAN1611876786212.9553.9
2015KAN16161037287512.2554.7
2016KAN1615117851,12513.2470.3
2017KAN1515122831,03812.5869.2
2018KAN16161501031,336131083.5
2019KAN1616136971,22912.7576.8
2020KAN15151451051,41613.51194.4
2021KAN1616134921,12512.2970.3
2022KAN17171521101,33812.21278.7
2023KAN15151219398410.6565.6
2024KAN1616133978238.5351.4
2025KAN17171087685111.2550.1
Career1911851508108013,00212.08268.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2009CincinnatiBig 12113033
2011CincinnatiBig 12010121212.10
2012CincinnatiBig 12545722816144.4
Career6568461015.1141.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

93%

ML model output

Context Prob

93%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

866 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.645
2.83 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.421
Class YPR rank: top 12% — elite per-target efficiency+0.363

Top Negative Factors

3.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.322
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.307
Speed × production: 80.1 — strong combined athletic output-0.291

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)