Player breakdown
Trey McBride
Colorado St. · 2022 Draft Class
6-4246 lbs2nd round, 55th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-American x1All-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ARI | 16 | 13 | 39 | 29 | 265 | 9.1 | 1 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | ARI | 17 | 12 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 10.2 | 3 | 48.5 |
| 2024 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 147 | 111 | 1,146 | 10.3 | 2 | 71.6 |
| 2025 | ARI | 17 | 17 | 169 | 126 | 1,239 | 9.8 | 11 | 72.9 |
| Career | 66 | 58 | 461 | 347 | 3,475 | 10.0 | 17 | 52.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 3 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 13 | 26 |
| 2019 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 12 | 45 | 560 | 0 | 12.4 | 46.7 |
| 2020 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 4 | 21 | 318 | 0 | 15.1 | 79.5 |
| 2021 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 10 | 69 | 884 | 0 | 12.8 | 88.4 |
| Career | 29 | 141 | 1,840 | 0 | 13.0 | 63.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
89%
ML model output
Context Prob
89%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
766 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.633
117" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.598
3.59 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.409
Top Negative Factors
26.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.293
BMI 29.9 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (246 lbs)-0.232
55.0 alt. conference-adjusted ypg — cross-conference production comparison-0.226