Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Troy Fumagalli
Troy Fumagalli

Player breakdown

Troy Fumagalli

Wisconsin · 2018 Draft Class

6-5247 lbs5th round, 156th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019DEN11596386.313.5
2020DEN801588010110
Career19524141188.426.2
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2014WisconsinBig Ten1112169014.115.4
2015WisconsinBig Ten827277010.334.6
2016WisconsinBig Ten1240492012.341
2017WisconsinBig Ten114351641246.9
Career421221,454411.934.6

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

15%

ML model output

Context Prob

15%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Reception rate trend+0.271
Efficiency consistency: 1.18 — highly consistent across seasons+0.240
-55.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.185

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+115 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.742
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.425
Class YPR rank: top 58% — average per-target efficiency-0.354

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)