Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Troy Niklas
Troy Niklas

Player breakdown

Troy Niklas

Notre Dame · 2014 Draft Class

6-6270 lbs2nd round, 52nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014ARI72333812.705.4
2015ARI16344338.322.1
2016ARI32210000
2017ARI151123111321218.8
Career4118321920310.735.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2012Notre DameFBS Independents157511575
2013Notre DameFBS Independents528422515.184.4
Career633497615.182.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

114" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.537
Speed × production: 41.5 — average combined athletic output+0.188
YPG ranked at 10th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.171

Top Negative Factors

140 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.541
75.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact-0.472
1.56 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.441

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)