Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft

Player breakdown

Tucker Kraft

South Dakota St. · 2023 Draft Class

6-5254 lbs3rd round, 78th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
High700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

59%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2023GNB178403135511.5220.9
2024GNB1717705070714.1741.6
2025GNB88443248915.3661.1
Career42331541131,55113.71536.9
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2022South Dakota StateMVFC411115110.528.8

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

59%

ML model output

Context Prob

59%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

122" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.630
Flat production across college career+0.203
-61.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.185

Top Negative Factors

38 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.426
0.45 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.363
28.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.330

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)