Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tyler Kroft
Tyler Kroft

Player breakdown

Tyler Kroft

Rutgers · 2015 Draft Class

6-5246 lbs3rd round, 85th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

13%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2015CIN166151112911.718.1
2016CIN14111210929.206.6
2017CIN161662424049.6725.3
2018CIN526436907.2
2019BUF1131467111.816.5
2020BUF10416121199.9311.9
2021NYJ96251617310.8119.2
2022SFO114545714.305.2
Career92521551051,08110.31311.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2012RutgersBig Ten1359119.759
2013RutgersBig Ten440530413.2132.5
2014RutgersBig Ten923247010.727.4
Career1466836512.759.7

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

13%

ML model output

Context Prob

13%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Efficiency consistency: 1.55 — highly consistent across seasons+0.246
-30.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average+0.168
Catch radius: 0.0 — limited physical reach envelope+0.145

Top Negative Factors

Positive production trend (+94) — improving trajectory-0.762
59.0 ypg as a freshman — solid first-year impact-0.453
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.408

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)