Player breakdown
Tyler Warren
Penn St. · 2025 Draft Class
6-6256 lbs1st round, 14th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
EliteJohn Mackey x1All-Conference x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $511K
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | IND | 17 | 12 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 10.8 | 4 | 48.1 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Penn State | Big Ten | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | Penn State | Big Ten | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 | 12.2 | 19.6 |
| 2023 | Penn State | Big Ten | 11 | 28 | 286 | 6 | 10.2 | 26 |
| 2024 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 87 | 1,050 | 6 | 12.1 | 80.8 |
| Career | 32 | 126 | 1,466 | 12 | 11.6 | 45.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
82%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,400 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.642
4.10 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.434
Strong ascending production slope (+339 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.344
Top Negative Factors
Broad jump not recorded at combine — missing explosive power data-0.387
Class YPR rank: top 69% — average per-target efficiency-0.343
10.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.281