Player breakdown
Vance McDonald
Rice · 2013 Draft Class
6-4267 lbs2nd round, 55th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | SFO | 15 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 2014 | SFO | 8 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2015 | SFO | 14 | 11 | 46 | 30 | 326 | 10.9 | 3 | 23.3 |
| 2017 | PIT | 10 | 7 | 24 | 14 | 188 | 13.4 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 2018 | PIT | 15 | 14 | 72 | 50 | 610 | 12.2 | 4 | 40.7 |
| 2019 | PIT | 14 | 14 | 55 | 38 | 273 | 7.2 | 3 | 19.5 |
| 2020 | PIT | 14 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Career | 90 | 66 | 244 | 157 | 1,645 | 10.5 | 11 | 18.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Rice | American Athletic | 0 | 12 | 118 | 0 | 9.8 | 0 |
| 2010 | Rice | American Athletic | 5 | 28 | 396 | 8 | 14.1 | 79.2 |
| 2011 | Rice | American Athletic | 4 | 43 | 532 | 5 | 12.4 | 133 |
| 2012 | Rice | American Athletic | 2 | 36 | 458 | 2 | 12.7 | 229 |
| Career | 11 | 119 | 1,504 | 15 | 12.6 | 136.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
8%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
119" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.567
118.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.356
9.8 YPR in first season — average freshman efficiency+0.143
Top Negative Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+113 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.695
177 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.532
Speed × production: 58.7 — average combined athletic output-0.362