Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Vernon Davis
Vernon Davis

Player breakdown

Vernon Davis

Maryland · 2006 Draft Class

6-3254 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~42
Elite700+ Receiving
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

91%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2006SFO108422026513.3326.5
2007SFO141485525099.8436.4
2008SFO1616493135811.5222.4
2009SFO16161287896512.41360.3
2010SFO1616935691416.3757.1
2011SFO1616956779211.8649.5
2012SFO1616614154813.4534.3
2013SFO1515845285016.31356.7
2014SFO141450262459.4217.5
20152TM159583839510.4026.3
2015SFO65301819410.8032.3
2015DEN94282020110.1022.3
2016WAS1614594458313.3236.4
2017WAS1616694364815.1340.5
2018WAS148362536714.7226.2
2019WAS41191012312.3130.8
Career2131889866217,95712.86337.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2004MarylandBig Ten127441316.3441
2005MarylandBig Ten051871617.10
Career1781,312916.81312.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

91%

ML model output

Context Prob

91%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

1,161 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.637
128" broad jump — strong lower-body explosion+0.571
3.43 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.349

Top Negative Factors

Speed × production: 120.2 — elite combined athletic output-0.317
Reception rate trend-0.297
Best season: 441.0 ypg — elite 100+ ypg per-game ceiling-0.259

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)