Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Virgil Green
Virgil Green

Player breakdown

Virgil Green

Nevada · 2011 Draft Class

6-3249 lbs7th round, 204th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 700+ Rec
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

21%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2011DEN1535324801.6
2012DEN122656312.605.3
2013DEN16312945502.8
2014DEN139667412.315.7
2015DEN165151217314.4110.8
2016DEN1211372223710.8119.8
2017DEN1616221419113.6111.9
2018LAC1616271921011.1113.1
2019LAC154139788.715.2
2020LAC63635016.718.3
Career137721491021,14511.278.4
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2008NevadaMountain West113136110.5136
2009NevadaMountain West523260511.352
2010NevadaMountain West431453514.6113.2
Career10678491112.784.9

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

21%

ML model output

Context Prob

21%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.854

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

130" broad jump — elite lower-body explosion+0.568
136.0 ypg as a freshman — elite first-year impact+0.360
YPG ranked at 10th percentile in draft class — average relative to peers+0.176

Top Negative Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+158 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time-0.554
392 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak-0.499
1.82 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production-0.406

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)