Player breakdown
Zach Ertz
Stanford · 2013 Draft Class
6-5249 lbs2nd round, 35th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
EliteAll-American x1700+ Receiving
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
88%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | PHI | 16 | 3 | 57 | 36 | 469 | 13 | 4 | 29.3 |
| 2014 | PHI | 16 | 5 | 89 | 58 | 702 | 12.1 | 3 | 43.9 |
| 2015 | PHI | 15 | 7 | 112 | 75 | 853 | 11.4 | 2 | 56.9 |
| 2016 | PHI | 14 | 12 | 106 | 78 | 816 | 10.5 | 4 | 58.3 |
| 2017 | PHI | 14 | 13 | 110 | 74 | 824 | 11.1 | 8 | 58.9 |
| 2018 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 156 | 116 | 1,163 | 10 | 8 | 72.7 |
| 2019 | PHI | 15 | 15 | 135 | 88 | 916 | 10.4 | 6 | 61.1 |
| 2020 | PHI | 11 | 11 | 72 | 36 | 335 | 9.3 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 2021 | 2TM | 17 | 14 | 112 | 74 | 763 | 10.3 | 5 | 44.9 |
| 2021 | PHI | 6 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 189 | 10.5 | 2 | 31.5 |
| 2021 | ARI | 11 | 11 | 81 | 56 | 574 | 10.3 | 3 | 52.2 |
| 2022 | ARI | 10 | 10 | 69 | 47 | 406 | 8.6 | 4 | 40.6 |
| 2023 | ARI | 7 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 187 | 6.9 | 1 | 26.7 |
| 2024 | WAS | 17 | 17 | 91 | 66 | 654 | 9.9 | 7 | 38.5 |
| 2025 | WAS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 50 | 504 | 10.1 | 4 | 38.8 |
| Career | 198 | 157 | 1336 | 899 | 9,355 | 10.4 | 62 | 47.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Stanford | ACC | 5 | 14 | 151 | 4 | 10.8 | 30.2 |
| 2011 | Stanford | ACC | 3 | 23 | 308 | 3 | 13.4 | 102.7 |
| 2012 | Stanford | ACC | 6 | 69 | 898 | 6 | 13 | 149.7 |
| Career | 14 | 106 | 1,357 | 13 | 12.8 | 96.9 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
88%
ML model output
Context Prob
88%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.854
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
1,077 conference-adjusted best-season yards — competition-normalized peak+0.645
111" broad jump — average lower-body explosion+0.542
3.61 ypg per lb — average size-adjusted production+0.394
Top Negative Factors
30.2 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact-0.321
Speed × production: 87.1 — strong combined athletic output-0.311
Class YPR rank: top 50% — average per-target efficiency-0.307