Player breakdown
Joe Reed
Virginia · 2020 Draft Class
6-0224 lbs5th round, 151st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~28
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LAC | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Virginia | ACC | 12 | 4 | 77 | 0 | 19.3 | 6.4 |
| 2017 | Virginia | ACC | 12 | 23 | 244 | 2 | 10.6 | 20.3 |
| 2018 | Virginia | ACC | 13 | 25 | 465 | 7 | 18.6 | 35.8 |
| 2019 | Virginia | ACC | 13 | 77 | 679 | 7 | 8.8 | 52.2 |
| Career | 50 | 129 | 1,465 | 16 | 11.4 | 29.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
51%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.366
6.4 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.265
BMI 30.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (224 lbs)+0.173
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.319
-27.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.724
Improvement accelerating (+7.8) — getting better faster each year-0.445