Player breakdown
Justin McCareins
Northern Illinois · 2001 Draft Class
6-2209 lbs4th round, 124th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~47
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
84%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | TEN | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 88 | 29.3 | 0 | 22 |
| 2002 | TEN | 16 | 1 | 48 | 19 | 301 | 15.8 | 2 | 18.8 |
| 2003 | TEN | 16 | 10 | 82 | 47 | 813 | 17.3 | 7 | 50.8 |
| 2004 | NYJ | 16 | 16 | 90 | 56 | 770 | 13.8 | 4 | 48.1 |
| 2005 | NYJ | 16 | 16 | 104 | 43 | 713 | 16.6 | 2 | 44.6 |
| 2006 | NYJ | 16 | 7 | 40 | 23 | 347 | 15.1 | 1 | 21.7 |
| 2007 | NYJ | 16 | 6 | 46 | 19 | 232 | 12.2 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 2008 | TEN | 14 | 10 | 72 | 30 | 412 | 13.7 | 0 | 29.4 |
| Career | 114 | 67 | 485 | 240 | 3,676 | 15.3 | 16 | 32.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 11 | 66 | 1,168 | 10 | 17.7 | 106.2 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
89%
ML model output
Context Prob
55%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.172
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.604
77.0% TD share at small school — dominant alpha receiver red-zone role+0.312
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.425
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.412
Recruit dominator synergy-0.312