Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Robert Ferguson
Robert Ferguson

Player breakdown

Robert Ferguson

Texas A&M · 2001 Draft Class

6-1205 lbs2nd round, 41st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~46
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2002GNB161522229313.3318.3
2003GNB1512593852013.7434.7
2004GNB135492436715.3128.2
2005GNB117592736613.6333.3
2006GNB41135316.217.8
2007MIN158613239112.2126.1
2008MIN8053258.303.1
Career82342981511,99313.21324.3
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2000Texas A&MBig 121058885615.388.5

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

52%

ML model output

Context Prob

92%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

1

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.291
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.535
+32.5 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.315

Top Negative Factors

Scout dominator depth synergy-0.368
Recruit dominator synergy-0.301
0.10 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.225

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)