Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Arnaz Battle
Arnaz Battle

Player breakdown

Arnaz Battle

Notre Dame · 2003 Draft Class

6-1217 lbs6th round, 197th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~46
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

71%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2003SFO80100000
2004SFO14015814317.9010.2
2005SFO108543236311.3336.3
2006SFO1615855968611.6342.9
2007SFO16151045060012537.5
2008SFO90422431813.3035.3
2009SFO1505540802.7
2010PIT150200000
2011PIT100100000
Career113383091782,15012.11119.0
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2001Notre DameInd7540085.7
2002Notre DameInd1358786513.660.5
Career2063826513.141.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

88%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

6

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.229
5.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.300
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.197

Top Negative Factors

-15.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.750
Improvement accelerating (+18.6) — getting better faster each year-0.475
0.25 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.451

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)