Player breakdown
Bethel Johnson
Texas A&M · 2003 Draft Class
5-11201 lbs2nd round, 45th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~47
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
34%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | NWE | 15 | 5 | 34 | 16 | 209 | 13.1 | 2 | 13.9 |
| 2004 | NWE | 13 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 174 | 17.4 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 2005 | NWE | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 16.8 | 1 | 6.1 |
| 2006 | MIN | 11 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 156 | 17.3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Career | 50 | 9 | 80 | 39 | 606 | 15.5 | 4 | 12.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Texas A&M | Big 12 | 11 | 42 | 440 | 0 | 10.5 | 40 |
| 2001 | Texas A&M | Big 12 | 2 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 8.5 | 34 |
| 2002 | Texas A&M | Big 12 | 12 | 40 | 718 | 8 | 18 | 59.8 |
| Career | 25 | 90 | 1,226 | 8 | 13.6 | 49.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
3%
ML model output
Context Prob
80%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.214
3.6 catches/game — featured receiver+0.155
BMI 28.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (201 lbs)+0.155
Top Negative Factors
-6.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.749
Accounted for 1.69 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.390
Physical production synergy-0.374