Player breakdown
Charlie Jones
Purdue · 2023 Draft Class
5-11175 lbs4th round, 131st overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | CIN | 11 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | CIN | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | CIN | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 33 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 | 2.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 11 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 2006 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 11 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 5 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | Memphis | CUSA | 10 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| 2018 | Buffalo | MAC | 14 | 18 | 395 | 3 | 21.9 | 28.2 |
| 2021 | Iowa | Big Ten | 14 | 21 | 323 | 3 | 15.4 | 23.1 |
| 2022 | Purdue | Big Ten | 13 | 110 | 1,361 | 12 | 12.4 | 104.7 |
| Career | 73 | 167 | 2,156 | 18 | 12.9 | 29.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
29%
ML model output
Context Prob
45%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.430
+52.5 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.268
BMI 24.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (175 lbs)+0.227
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.287
Improvement accelerating (+2.5) — getting better faster each year-0.351
Physical production synergy-0.332