Player breakdown
Derius Davis
TCU · 2023 Draft Class
5-8165 lbs4th round, 125th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
7%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LAC | 17 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | LAC | 15 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 112 | 8.6 | 2 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | LAC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Career | 43 | 4 | 37 | 30 | 188 | 6.3 | 2 | 4.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 11 | 8 | 104 | 2 | 13 | 9.5 |
| 2019 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 12 | 11 | 151 | 0 | 13.7 | 12.6 |
| 2020 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 9 | 15 | 209 | 1 | 13.9 | 23.2 |
| 2021 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 12 | 36 | 518 | 1 | 14.4 | 43.2 |
| 2022 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 14 | 42 | 531 | 5 | 12.6 | 37.9 |
| Career | 58 | 112 | 1,513 | 9 | 13.5 | 26.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.478
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.94x — route-running independent of system+0.199
Team averaged 0.0 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.189
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.268
-25.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.585
Improvement accelerating (+4.1) — getting better faster each year-0.427