Player breakdown
Russell Gage
LSU · 2018 Draft Class
6-0175 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
29%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ATL | 15 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 2019 | ATL | 16 | 4 | 74 | 49 | 446 | 9.1 | 1 | 27.9 |
| 2020 | ATL | 16 | 8 | 109 | 72 | 786 | 10.9 | 4 | 49.1 |
| 2021 | ATL | 14 | 9 | 94 | 66 | 770 | 11.7 | 4 | 55 |
| 2022 | TAM | 13 | 4 | 70 | 51 | 426 | 8.4 | 5 | 32.8 |
| Career | 74 | 25 | 357 | 244 | 2,491 | 10.2 | 14 | 33.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 12.4 | 5.6 |
| 2017 | LSU | SEC | 13 | 21 | 285 | 3 | 13.6 | 21.9 |
| Career | 24 | 26 | 347 | 4 | 13.3 | 14.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
23%
ML model output
Context Prob
62%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.114
Recruit dominator synergy+0.503
5.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.254
Top Negative Factors
-37.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.733
Improvement accelerating (+3.6) — getting better faster each year-0.465
0.17 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.450