Player breakdown
Jordan Watkins
Mississippi · 2025 Draft Class
5-11196 lbs4th round, 138th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~24
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $1.5M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
29%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SFO | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Louisville | ACC | 8 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| 2021 | Louisville | ACC | 12 | 35 | 529 | 4 | 15.1 | 44.1 |
| 2022 | Ole Miss | SEC | 13 | 40 | 449 | 2 | 11.2 | 34.5 |
| 2023 | Ole Miss | SEC | 13 | 53 | 741 | 3 | 14 | 57 |
| 2024 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 49 | 906 | 9 | 18.5 | 75.5 |
| Career | 58 | 185 | 2,682 | 18 | 14.5 | 46.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
27%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.333
Recruit dominator synergy+0.386
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.86 — elite recruit at elite school+0.203
Top Negative Factors
+0.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.743
Improvement accelerating (+14.9) — getting better faster each year-0.432
Physical production synergy-0.369