Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Parris Campbell
Parris Campbell

Player breakdown

Parris Campbell

Ohio St. · 2019 Draft Class

6-0205 lbs2nd round, 59th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

30%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2019IND7324181277.1118.1
2020IND22967111.8035.5
2021IND63201016216.2127
2022IND171691636239.9336.6
2023NYG12327201045.208.7
2024PHI508630516
Career49271791231,1179.1622.8
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2016Ohio StateBig Ten131312109.39.3
2017Ohio StateBig Ten1340584314.644.9
2018Ohio StateBig Ten14901,0631211.875.9
Career401431,7681512.444.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

26%

ML model output

Context Prob

53%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.230
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.94 — elite recruit at elite school+0.225
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.92x — route-running independent of system+0.180

Top Negative Factors

-11.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.708
Physical production synergy-0.590
Improvement accelerating (+7.8) — getting better faster each year-0.420

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)