Player breakdown
Van Jefferson
Florida · 2020 Draft Class
6-1200 lbs2nd round, 57th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | LAR | 16 | 0 | 31 | 19 | 220 | 11.6 | 1 | 13.8 |
| 2021 | LAR | 17 | 17 | 89 | 50 | 802 | 16 | 6 | 47.2 |
| 2022 | LAR | 11 | 9 | 44 | 24 | 369 | 15.4 | 3 | 33.5 |
| 2023 | 2TM | 17 | 9 | 43 | 20 | 209 | 10.5 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 2023 | LAR | 5 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 2023 | ATL | 12 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 101 | 8.4 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | PIT | 17 | 12 | 40 | 24 | 276 | 11.5 | 2 | 16.2 |
| 2025 | TEN | 16 | 7 | 52 | 29 | 350 | 12.1 | 1 | 21.9 |
| Career | 111 | 63 | 342 | 186 | 2,435 | 13.1 | 13 | 21.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 49 | 543 | 3 | 11.1 | 45.3 |
| 2017 | Ole Miss | SEC | 10 | 42 | 456 | 1 | 10.9 | 45.6 |
| 2018 | Florida | SEC | 13 | 35 | 503 | 6 | 14.4 | 38.7 |
| 2019 | Florida | SEC | 13 | 49 | 657 | 6 | 13.4 | 50.5 |
| Career | 48 | 175 | 2,159 | 16 | 12.3 | 45.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
76%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.312
Efficiency consistency: 1.04 — highly consistent across seasons+0.197
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.95 — elite recruit at elite school+0.183
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.443
-9.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.553
Accounted for 1.41 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.311