Player breakdown
Aaron Burbridge
Michigan St. · 2016 Draft Class
6-0206 lbs6th round, 213th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
25%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | SFO | 16 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 88 | 12.6 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 10 | 29 | 364 | 2 | 12.6 | 36.4 |
| 2013 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 9 | 22 | 194 | 0 | 8.8 | 21.6 |
| 2014 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 29 | 358 | 1 | 12.3 | 27.5 |
| 2015 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 14 | 85 | 1,258 | 7 | 14.8 | 89.9 |
| Career | 46 | 165 | 2,174 | 10 | 13.2 | 47.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
70%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.96 — elite recruit at elite school+0.207
BMI 27.9 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (206 lbs)+0.192
Speed score 95.3 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.154
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.418
Physical production synergy-0.542
-8.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.526