Player breakdown
Aaron Dobson
Marshall · 2013 Draft Class
6-3210 lbs2nd round, 59th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
19%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NWE | 12 | 9 | 72 | 37 | 519 | 14 | 4 | 43.3 |
| 2014 | NWE | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2015 | NWE | 8 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 141 | 10.8 | 0 | 17.6 |
| Career | 24 | 13 | 98 | 53 | 698 | 13.2 | 4 | 29.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Marshall | CUSA | 12 | 15 | 362 | 4 | 24.1 | 30.2 |
| 2010 | Marshall | CUSA | 12 | 44 | 689 | 5 | 15.7 | 57.4 |
| 2011 | Marshall | CUSA | 13 | 49 | 668 | 12 | 13.6 | 51.4 |
| 2012 | Marshall | CUSA | 10 | 57 | 679 | 3 | 11.9 | 67.9 |
| Career | 47 | 165 | 2,398 | 24 | 14.5 | 51.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
32%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.428
BMI 26.2 — ideal frame for NFL WR (210 lbs)+0.217
Recruit dominator synergy+0.189
Top Negative Factors
-5.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.762
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.463
Accounted for 1.64 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.403