Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Brandon Gibson
Brandon Gibson

Player breakdown

Brandon Gibson

Washington St. · 2009 Draft Class

6-0210 lbs6th round, 194th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

12%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2009STL94693434810.2138.7
2010STL1412915362011.7244.3
2011STL159713643112128.7
2012STL1613825169113.5543.2
2013MIA73433032610.9346.6
2014MIA145512929510.2121.1
Career75464072332,71111.61336.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2005Washington StatePac-1099172219.119.1
2006Washington StatePac-101249731414.960.9
2007Washington StatePac-1011671,180917.6107.3
2008Washington StatePac-101357673211.851.8
2009AlabamaSEC4225012.56.3
2010AlabamaSEC1243909.83.3
2011AlabamaSEC131414011010.8
Career742022,9601814.740.0

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

1%

ML model output

Context Prob

73%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

BMI 28.5 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (210 lbs)+0.230
Physical production synergy+0.221
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.213

Top Negative Factors

Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.342
+5.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.541
Improvement accelerating (+5.9) — getting better faster each year-0.463

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)