Player breakdown
Amon-Ra St. Brown
USC · 2021 Draft Class
5-11197 lbs4th round, 112th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
High1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
66%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | DET | 17 | 9 | 119 | 90 | 912 | 10.1 | 5 | 53.6 |
| 2022 | DET | 16 | 16 | 146 | 106 | 1,161 | 11 | 6 | 72.6 |
| 2023 | DET | 16 | 16 | 164 | 119 | 1,515 | 12.7 | 10 | 94.7 |
| 2024 | DET | 17 | 17 | 141 | 115 | 1,263 | 11 | 12 | 74.3 |
| 2025 | DET | 17 | 17 | 172 | 117 | 1,401 | 12 | 11 | 82.4 |
| Career | 83 | 75 | 742 | 547 | 6,252 | 11.4 | 44 | 75.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | USC | Pac-12 | 12 | 60 | 750 | 3 | 12.5 | 62.5 |
| 2019 | USC | Pac-12 | 13 | 77 | 1,042 | 6 | 13.5 | 80.2 |
| 2020 | USC | Pac-12 | 6 | 41 | 478 | 7 | 11.7 | 79.7 |
| Career | 31 | 178 | 2,270 | 16 | 12.8 | 73.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
67%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.305
Physical production synergy+0.376
BMI 27.5 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (197 lbs)+0.211
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.268
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.221
Efficiency composite: 0.51 — average combined efficiency-0.208