Player breakdown
Sammy Watkins
Clemson · 2014 Draft Class
6-1211 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
89%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 128 | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 | 61.4 |
| 2015 | BUF | 13 | 13 | 96 | 60 | 1,047 | 17.5 | 9 | 80.5 |
| 2016 | BUF | 8 | 8 | 52 | 28 | 430 | 15.4 | 2 | 53.8 |
| 2017 | LAR | 15 | 14 | 70 | 39 | 593 | 15.2 | 8 | 39.5 |
| 2018 | KAN | 10 | 9 | 55 | 40 | 519 | 13 | 3 | 51.9 |
| 2019 | KAN | 14 | 13 | 90 | 52 | 673 | 12.9 | 3 | 48.1 |
| 2020 | KAN | 10 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 421 | 11.4 | 2 | 42.1 |
| 2021 | BAL | 13 | 9 | 49 | 27 | 394 | 14.6 | 1 | 30.3 |
| 2022 | 2TM | 12 | 5 | 27 | 16 | 325 | 20.3 | 0 | 27.1 |
| 2022 | GNB | 9 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 206 | 15.8 | 0 | 22.9 |
| 2022 | BAL | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 119 | 39.7 | 0 | 39.7 |
| Career | 123 | 101 | 649 | 380 | 5,709 | 15.0 | 34 | 46.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Clemson | ACC | 13 | 82 | 1,219 | 12 | 14.9 | 93.8 |
| 2012 | Clemson | ACC | 10 | 57 | 708 | 3 | 12.4 | 70.8 |
| 2013 | Clemson | ACC | 13 | 101 | 1,464 | 12 | 14.5 | 112.6 |
| Career | 36 | 240 | 3,391 | 27 | 14.1 | 94.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
96%
ML model output
Context Prob
75%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 29% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.227
Physical production synergy+0.456
+38.2 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.280
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.239
54.9 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.179
13.9 avg YPR per season — strong consistent efficiency-0.130