Player breakdown
Ashley Lelie
Hawaii · 2002 Draft Class
6-3197 lbs1st round, 19th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~46
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
94%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | DEN | 16 | 1 | 53 | 35 | 525 | 15 | 2 | 32.8 |
| 2003 | DEN | 16 | 10 | 81 | 37 | 628 | 17 | 2 | 39.3 |
| 2004 | DEN | 16 | 16 | 101 | 54 | 1,084 | 20.1 | 7 | 67.8 |
| 2005 | DEN | 16 | 13 | 90 | 42 | 770 | 18.3 | 1 | 48.1 |
| 2006 | ATL | 15 | 10 | 68 | 28 | 430 | 15.4 | 1 | 28.7 |
| 2007 | SFO | 15 | 3 | 27 | 10 | 115 | 11.5 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 2008 | OAK | 13 | 6 | 45 | 11 | 197 | 17.9 | 2 | 15.2 |
| Career | 107 | 59 | 465 | 217 | 3,749 | 17.3 | 15 | 35.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Hawaii | WAC | 12 | 74 | 1,110 | 11 | 15 | 92.5 |
| 2001 | Hawaii | WAC | 12 | 84 | 1,713 | 19 | 20.4 | 142.8 |
| Career | 24 | 158 | 2,823 | 30 | 17.9 | 117.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
94%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.117
45.0% TD share at small school — dominant alpha receiver red-zone role+0.337
+63.2 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.456
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.381
Recruit dominator synergy-0.204