Player breakdown
Bryant Johnson
Penn St. · 2003 Draft Class
6-2214 lbs1st round, 17th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~45
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
26%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | ARI | 15 | 8 | 78 | 35 | 438 | 12.5 | 1 | 29.2 |
| 2004 | ARI | 16 | 11 | 102 | 49 | 537 | 11 | 1 | 33.6 |
| 2005 | ARI | 14 | 4 | 72 | 40 | 432 | 10.8 | 1 | 30.9 |
| 2006 | ARI | 16 | 8 | 74 | 40 | 740 | 18.5 | 4 | 46.3 |
| 2007 | ARI | 16 | 8 | 88 | 46 | 528 | 11.5 | 2 | 33 |
| 2008 | SFO | 16 | 12 | 75 | 45 | 546 | 12.1 | 3 | 34.1 |
| 2009 | DET | 16 | 16 | 87 | 35 | 417 | 11.9 | 3 | 26.1 |
| 2010 | DET | 14 | 7 | 49 | 18 | 210 | 11.7 | 0 | 15 |
| 2011 | HOU | 16 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 5.6 |
| Career | 139 | 74 | 637 | 314 | 3,938 | 12.5 | 16 | 28.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Penn State | Big Ten | 11 | 4 | 85 | 1 | 21.3 | 7.7 |
| 2001 | Penn State | Big Ten | 11 | 51 | 866 | 3 | 17 | 78.7 |
| 2002 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 48 | 917 | 4 | 19.1 | 70.5 |
| Career | 35 | 103 | 1,868 | 8 | 18.1 | 53.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
56%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.072
7.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.236
Class YPR rank: top 16% — elite per-target efficiency+0.225
Top Negative Factors
-2.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.757
Physical production synergy-0.555
Improvement accelerating (+9.8) — getting better faster each year-0.488