Player breakdown
Caleb Douglas
Texas Tech · 2026 Draft Class
6-4206 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Medium
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
45%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Florida | SEC | 8 | 10 | 175 | 2 | 17.5 | 21.9 |
| 2023 | Florida | SEC | 5 | 11 | 133 | 1 | 12.1 | 26.6 |
| 2024 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 13 | 60 | 877 | 6 | 14.6 | 67.5 |
| 2025 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 14 | 54 | 846 | 7 | 15.7 | 60.4 |
| Career | 40 | 135 | 2,031 | 16 | 15.0 | 50.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
14%
ML model output
Context Prob
92%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.043
Recruit dominator synergy+0.398
BMI 25.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (206 lbs)+0.214
Top Negative Factors
+7.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.716
Physical production synergy-0.535
Accounted for 1.64 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.441