Player breakdown
Jayden Reed
Michigan St. · 2023 Draft Class
5-11187 lbs2nd round, 50th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | GNB | 16 | 13 | 94 | 64 | 793 | 12.4 | 8 | 49.6 |
| 2024 | GNB | 17 | 10 | 75 | 55 | 857 | 15.6 | 6 | 50.4 |
| 2025 | GNB | 7 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 207 | 10.9 | 1 | 29.6 |
| Career | 40 | 26 | 191 | 138 | 1,857 | 13.5 | 15 | 46.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Western Michigan | MAC | 13 | 56 | 797 | 8 | 14.2 | 61.3 |
| 2020 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 7 | 33 | 407 | 3 | 12.3 | 58.1 |
| 2021 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 13 | 59 | 1,026 | 10 | 17.4 | 78.9 |
| 2022 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 11 | 55 | 636 | 5 | 11.6 | 57.8 |
| Career | 44 | 203 | 2,866 | 26 | 14.1 | 65.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.319
Recruit dominator synergy+0.260
BMI 26.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (187 lbs)+0.246
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.733
+12.3 ypg vs. draft class average — above average-0.196
53.5 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.186